Copper: large specs a week past their record
Large speculators in copper hold the second-highest net tilt in 608 weekly reports, one week after setting the highest, while commercials sit at a 36-week low.
The 25 August report puts large speculators in copper net long 85,266 contracts. Against open interest of 283,299 that is a tilt of 0.5411 — the 99th percentile of the 608 weekly reports on file since January 2015.
It is not the peak itself. A week earlier, on 18 August, the same series printed 0.5575, and no higher large-spec tilt exists anywhere in the record: 607 weeks without a larger reading. The latest week is one step down from that mark, not a continuation of it.
The other side of the book
Commercials are the counterparty to that position and their reading moved the other way. Net short 95,049 contracts, tilt −0.3496, the 4th percentile of the same 608 weeks. That is the lowest commercial tilt in 36 weeks — the last reading below it was 16 December 2025, at −0.3633.
Small speculators are on the same side as the large ones: net long 9,783 contracts, tilt 0.3348, the 91st percentile.
The three series, as of 25 August
- Large specs — +85,266 contracts, tilt 0.5411, 99th percentile of 608 weeks.
- Commercials — −95,049 contracts, tilt −0.3496, 4th percentile, lowest in 36 weeks.
- Small specs — +9,783 contracts, tilt 0.3348, 91st percentile.
Both speculative categories are long and near the top of their own history; the commercial category is short and near the bottom of its own. The three readings are three views of one book, so this arrangement is arithmetic before it is anything else — the categories net to open interest whether or not any of them is at an extreme.
What the record does say is how unusual the current split is by the market's own standard: in 608 weeks of copper reports, the speculative side has been this far long twice, and both times were in the last three weeks.
The full 52-week history, with the weekly tilt and percentile for each of the three categories, is on the copper market page.